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Back in October 2022, when Rishi Sunak assumed office as the UK's leader, he became the fifth consecutive British prime minister to take up the role in six years.

Triggered in the UK by Brexit, this represented exceptional governmental instability. So how might we describe what is occurring in the French Republic, now on its fifth premier in two years – with three in the last ten months?

The current premier, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on that day, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in exchange for support from Socialist lawmakers as the price for his administration's continuation.

But it is, at best, a short-term solution. The EU’s second-largest economy is locked in a ongoing governmental crisis, the likes of which it has not witnessed for many years – perhaps not since the start of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no simple way out.

Minority Rule

Key background: ever since Macron initiated an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, the nation has had a divided assembly separated into three opposing factions – left, far right and his own centrist coalition – none with anything close to a majority.

At the same time, the country faces twin financial emergencies: its national debt level and deficit are now almost twice the EU threshold, and hard constitutional deadlines to pass a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are approaching.

In this challenging environment, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In mid-September, the leader named his trusted associate Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which proved to be much the same as the old one – he faced fury from allies and opponents alike.

To such an extent that the following day, he resigned. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in recent French history. In a dignified speech, he blamed political intransigence, saying “party loyalties” and “certain egos” would make his job virtually unworkable.

Another twist in the tale: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for another 48 hours in a final attempt to salvage cross-party backing – a mission, to put it mildly, filled with challenges.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs openly criticized the embattled president. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and leftist LFI refused to meet Lecornu, promising to vote down any and every new government unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the end of his 48 hours, he went on TV to say he believed “a path still existed” to prevent a vote. The leader's team announced the president would appoint a new prime minister two days later.

Macron kept his promise – and on that Friday appointed … Sébastien Lecornu, again. So recently – with Macron commenting from the wings that the nation's opposing groups were “creating discord” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Would he endure – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a critical address, the young prime minister outlined his financial plans, giving the Socialist party, who oppose Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were waiting for: Macron’s flagship reform would be frozen until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already on board, the Socialists said they would not back no-confidence motions tabled against Lecornu by the extremist factions – meaning the government should survive those votes, due on Thursday.

It is, however, far from guaranteed to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS clearly stated that it would be seeking more concessions. “This,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

Changing Political Culture

The problem is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, similar to the Socialists, the right-leaning parties are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – some are still itching to topple it.

A look at the seat numbers shows how difficult his mission – and longer-term survival – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the far-right RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR seek his removal.

To achieve that, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in 24 months is, similar to his forerunners, toast.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Even if, by an unlikely turn, the divided parliament summons up the collective responsibility to approve a budget this year, the outlook afterward look bleak.

So does an exit exist? Early elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: polls suggest pretty much every party bar the RN would see reduced representation, but there would remain no decisive majority. A fresh premier would confront identical numerical challenges.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to step down. After a presidential vote, his successor would disband the assembly and aim for a legislative majority in the ensuing legislative vote. But this also remains unclear.

Polls suggest the future president will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that France’s voters, having chosen a far-right leader, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

In the end, France may not escape its predicament until its leaders accept the new political reality, which is that decisive majorities are a thing of the past, absolute victory is obsolete, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Many think that transformation will not be feasible under the existing governmental framework. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and actively discourages – the emergence of governing coalitions common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”