🔗 Share this article

Just two days before the New York mayoral election, Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – not just the winner citywide, and block by block. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in the city, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and has become something of a local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win although missing Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, for instance, the split between the “commie corridor”, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and the majority of electors favored the independent, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Patterns and Unexpected Results

What was your election night?

I had to do that since they were adding around 200,000 votes into the tally frequently! I felt somewhat anxious at the beginning: The candidate was ahead the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but came large groups of votes that came in after that and the advantage went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world in which yesterday turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which Cuomo would have basically increasing his support from the earlier contest. But Mamdani gained half a million votes to his initial base, and this was critical why he won. He went out and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did the mayor-elect get additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained significantly with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the earlier election. Additionally he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, young, tenants and residents struggling with costs

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported Trump previously went for Zohran this year. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Effects

A major development of the night was the record turnout. Who did that help?

Both sides. Turnout was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought we might go over 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – that is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial anti-Mamdani block, energized, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to win.

You predicted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s favored to surpass 50%. He’s at 50.4% but there’s still probably 200K ballots uncounted at that time. Thus I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I hope he does so then no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any area. Including Tottenville in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative area. That truly surprised me. The independent kept very white areas, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these conservatives on the island who had a high participation. I believe there was a lot of strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it before Trump endorsed for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome unless the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your much mentioned left-wing base – was support for Mamdani overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners supported Cuomo. So there existed some opposition. But overall, mostly the leftist base is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

Prior to the election there was coverage on whether Mamdani was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are areas with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – like specific locales – where he did well. But in the affluent districts like the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential there. Likewise in the moderate communities including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they all leaned the independent. Plus, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, they were pretty staunchly supportive. Therefore I don’t know if existed major surprises here, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will commie corridor become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from the left hail from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I’m sure that there will be additional examples – candidates will come from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I believe that every city in the US can have their own commie corridor. Urban places are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.