🔗 Share this article

Initially, Donald Trump appeared to adopt a strong approach concerning Ukraine. Following issuing threats of "severe consequences" during the summer in case Putin carried on obstructing peace negotiations, the former president eventually imposed major penalties on the Russian primary oil companies, these major energy companies. This decision significantly impacted the Russian leader's ability to support his war effort in Ukraine.

But, with his recently unveiled 28-point peace plan for the conflict, reportedly drafted by both nations' representatives without Ukraine's or EU participation, Trump has apparently reverted to his favorable to Russia stance.

Favoring Aggression

The former president's proposal would essentially favor Putin for invading a sovereign nation while placing the country's political freedom in jeopardy. Despite ringing proclamations that "The nation's autonomy will be affirmed", much of the plan actually compromise that essential independence. Seen as a Moscow's wish would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his corporate past, the former president seems to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a simple territorial dispute, as if ceding Putin a part of Ukrainian soil will please the president. Yet, Russia's war is not simply about occupying a damaged swath of industrial-devastated land in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about the nation's democratic governance – and Putin's clear goal to weaken it so it no longer acts as an appealing standard for the Russia's population of the responsible government that his deepening autocracy prevents them.

Territorial Concessions

Although freezing in position the presently divided Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's initiative would force Ukraine to surrender the whole Donetsk province. Beyond favoring the Russian Federation with area that its troops have been unsuccessful to capture in over a decade of warfare, this giveaway would make Ukraine's defenses critically compromised.

This region is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the entrenched military defenses that are a critical obstacle to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine leave these defenses, leaving Putin a open route to Kyiv in case he eventually choose to resume the conflict.

Armed Forces Limitations

Then, in a action that would enable renewed conflict easier for the Russian military, the plan would require Ukraine to cut the numbers of its military from their current approximately 800,000 soldiers to a limit of 600,000. Importantly, Trump's proposal places no such restrictions on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a concession to Putin's efforts to characterize Ukraine's chosen by the people administration as radicals, Trump's proposal asserts: "Any Nazi ideology and actions must be condemned and forbidden." Apparently to underscore this aspect, it insists that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a truce. Meanwhile, Trump places no condition that Putin risk his authoritarian rule by holding elections in Russia.

Protection Assurances

Admittedly, the initiative has the Russian Federation promise not to "attack other states" and to "enshrine in legislation its position of non-aggression towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". However given that the Russian leadership has breached equivalent accords in the past – for example the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government pledged to honor Ukraine's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its historical atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow promised to a halt in fighting and a handback of occupied areas in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – why should anyone believe Putin this time?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on external protection assurances. Although the initiative promises a "decisive joint armed reaction" if Russia renew its invasion, and provides that "Ukraine will receive dependable defense commitments", the particulars include vague to alarming. The initiative would not only deny Ukraine alliance membership but also prohibit Nato members from stationing forces on Ukraine's soil, thus precluding the security presence, presumptively commanded by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to stop Putin from restoring his weakened military, rearming, and attacking again.

World Reaction

A separate parallel deal apparently would offer Ukraine with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any subsequent "serious, deliberate, and sustained armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an assault jeopardizing the stability and safety of the allied countries." That suggests a military response. Yet unlike a capable Ukrainian military – the nation's primary protection against future invasion – the success of the supplementary deal would rely on the dedication of Nato leaders, such as the US administration, to respond through arms to Putin's hostilities, a response they have {not